Informa Markets, a trading division of Informa PLC. The silver lining of COVID-19 for beef producers. Maybe early weaning into a feedlot is the answer? Both of these planning prices are suggesting the start of a new cattle price cycle. The price trend for 2020 appears to be stronger than what we experienced in 2019. Those labeled Fancy by the market reporter sold for an average $4.78 per cwt higher. He lives in Kuna, Idaho. For example, as this was being written, marketing steers off grass in September this year should be more favorable than marketing steers off grass in September last year. This market certainly seemed to have a lot of variation in the quality of feeder steers being sold. I hope this holds! Note the top two-thirds of the table covers feeder cattle prices, and the rows beginning “Slaughter” and “Futures months” cover slaughter cattle prices. Maybe fall calving would generate a better finishing date? The distance of the dots from the line represents price premiums and price discounts. Hughes is a North Dakota State University professor emeritus. As of press time, it’s impossible to speculate on how long COVID-19 will continue to affect markets. In general, fall 2020 prices are projected slightly higher than last fall as of mid-February, suggesting the beginning of the new beef price cycle. Note the top two-thirds of the table covers feeder cattle prices, and the rows beginning “Slaughter” and “Futures months” cover slaughter cattle prices. The next-to-the-bottom line covers Nebraska slaughter cattle basis. Live Cattle futures also suggest some insights in slaughter cattle prices down the road (Figure 3). Dressed prices that started at $162 moved to $167 yesterday. I watch September futures for marketing 2020 cattle off grass, and grass cattle were looking favorable in mid-February 2020. Fassett Hay and Cattle 11-05-2020; England Showstock Elite November Edition Sale 11-5-2020; Steady Run Genetics Steer and Heifer Sale 11-5-2020; Top Hat Simmentals 11-05-2020; 7th Annual Friends in Low Places Elite Heifer Sale 11-3-2020; Ladies of Swan Creek 11-3-2020; Tuttle Cattle Co. Online Sale 11-3-2020 Higher Live Cattle prices tend to occur in the early months of the year, with a typical summer low. Related: Examining COVID-19’s effect on cattle markets. But we can say that the fear and uncertainty the virus has caused in world markets will subside, and that markets will regain stability and return to normal. The first number is my projected price onto grass, and the second number is the projected price off grass. Yearlings off grass tend to finish shortly after the first of the year at a time of better slaughter prices. https://www.beefmagazine.com/sites/all/themes/penton_subtheme_beefmagazine/images/logos/footer.png. First, slaughter cattle futures prices tend to follow a seasonal pattern triggered by the fact that most cows are calved in spring months. Monthly cattle prices averaged $117.15 in 2019 and $117.07 in 2018. Suggested planning prices. I frequently write about trying to finish spring-born calves in May instead of June, knowing very well that this is a difficult goal. This included spending some travel time visiting custom feedlots trying to evaluate the potential for custom feeding some of his future calf crops. I can use statistics to calculate the dollar impact for those different labels, and I did that for this week’s feeder steers. The line represents the drop in steer calf prices over the total weight range. That demand will balance out the cattle supplies for 2020, which Petry says should be close to 2019. The red number in Figure 4 is the marketing loss per cwt on original weight going on grass. The downward sloping regression line shows the price drop as weights went up. Conversion Live Cattle Price Price; 1 Pound ≈ 0,453 Kilograms Live Cattle Price Per 1 … Regardless of who owns them, when do your calves finish? The net result is that my current projection is a $100-plus net return from grass cattle in 2020. Lines and paragraphs break automatically. Figure 2 presents the mid-February 2020 price trend for Feeder Cattle futures prices. Those feeders labeled Unweaned by the market reporter sold for an average of $12.85 per cwt lower. Figure 4 presents my mid-February 2020 suggested planning prices through fall weaning 2020. Let’s look forward at feeder cattle prices. ... For feeder cattle, Petry says futures prices are above last year. I have grass costs the same for both years. Yes, how feeders are marketed makes a big difference; and you, as a beef cow producer, have considerable control over how your feeders are marketed. New Cowboy documentary offers levity during a stressful November, An election in limbo: Here’s what we think we know, Fed Cattle Recap | Prices, cash volume head higher, Stress in agriculture — Checking in on my friends, Examining COVID-19’s effect on cattle markets, Allowed HTML tags:

. Beef Magazine is part of the Informa Markets Division of Informa PLC. The next-to-the-bottom line covers Nebraska slaughter cattle basis. Historically, Live Cattle reached an all time high of 171.98 in October of 2014. This site is operated by a business or businesses owned by Informa PLC and all copyright resides with them. In the last few months, he has spent considerable office time evaluating different marketing strategies for the next cycle. The bottom line presents my mid-February projections for grass cattle, the highlight of this month’s projections. Five-hundred-fifty-pound steer calves in fall 2020 are projected $7 higher than in fall 2019. Registered in England and Wales. If we are going to conduct some market planning for 2020, we need to look at feeder cattle prices down the road. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service labels some of the feeder cattle batches being sold as Fleshy, Fancy or Unweaned. There’s no doubt 2019 has been a challenging marketing year in what appears to be the last year of the last cattle cycle and its resulting price cycle. Monthly cattle prices have averaged $107.40 so far in 2020. Second, Figure 3 suggests a slightly higher spring 2021 price peak over spring 2020 — an early suggestion of a start to the next beef price cycle. The differences between the gold and red bars in Figure 2 give a general direction of a year’s price changes over the last 30 days. Most spring-born calves tend to be finished in the next year’s summer months, generating the price lows. Starting at a few sales at $103, prices moved to $107 yesterday. Number 8860726. That average trend drop is $18.90 per cwt of added weight. The bottom line pertains to grass cattle going on grass, coming off grass, and my calculated marketing loss per cwt on the original weight going on grass.

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