The book blends the latest technological developments in ML with critical life lessons learned from the author's decades of financial experience in leading academic and industrial institutions. by Marcos Lopez de Prado. Abstract. I wholeheartedly recommend this book … If nothing happens, download the GitHub extension for Visual Studio and try again. Read 21 reviews from the world's largest community for readers. Readers become active users who can test the proposed solutions in their particular setting. Financial incumbents most frequently use machine learning for process automation and security. Sign up. Free trial available! Advances in Financial Machine Learning: Lecture 10/10 (seminar slides) 44 Pages Posted: 14 Nov 2019 Last revised: 29 Jun 2020. Solutions. Today ML algorithms accomplish tasks that until recently only expert humans could perform. 2.3 Regulatory dependence on rules-based approaches . Cornell University - Operations Research & Industrial Engineering; True Positive Technologies. Advances in Financial Machine Learning Complete. Advances in Financial Machine Learning by Marcos Lopez de Prado With an OverDrive account, you can save your favorite libraries for at-a-glance information about availability. Given such tools, one could hope to quantify the risk using a prediction of the exchange rate along with an estimate of the accuracy of the prediction. Learn more. Request permission to reuse content from this site, 1 Financial Machine Learning as a Distinct Subject 3, 1.2 The Main Reason Financial Machine Learning Projects Usually Fail, 4, 2.2 Essential Types of Financial Data, 23, 2.4 Dealing with Multi-Product Series, 32, 4.5 Bagging Classifiers and Uniqueness, 62, 4.5.2 Implementation of Sequential Bootstrap, 64, 5 Fractionally Differentiated Features 75, 5.2 The Stationarity vs. Memory Dilemma, 75, 5.6 Stationarity with Maximum Memory Preservation, 84, 7.5 Bugs in Sklearn’s Cross-Validation, 109, 8.2 The Importance of Feature Importance, 113, 8.3 Feature Importance with Substitution Effects, 114, 8.4 Feature Importance without Substitution Effects, 117, 8.5 Parallelized vs. Stacked Feature Importance, 121, 9 Hyper-Parameter Tuning with Cross-Validation 129, 9.3 Randomized Search Cross-Validation, 131, 9.4 Scoring and Hyper-parameter Tuning, 134, 10.2 Strategy-Independent Bet Sizing Approaches, 141, 10.3 Bet Sizing from Predicted Probabilities, 142, 10.6 Dynamic Bet Sizes and Limit Prices, 145 Exercises, 148, 11.2 Mission Impossible: The Flawless Backtest, 151, 11.3 Even If Your Backtest Is Flawless, It Is Probably Wrong, 152, 11.4 Backtesting Is Not a Research Tool, 153, 12 Backtesting through Cross-Validation 161, 12.2.1 Pitfalls of the Walk-Forward Method, 162, 12.4 The Combinatorial Purged Cross-Validation Method, 163, 12.4.2 The Combinatorial Purged Cross-Validation Backtesting Algorithm, 165, 12.5 How Combinatorial Purged Cross-Validation Addresses Backtest Overfitting, 166, 13.5 Numerical Determination of Optimal Trading Rules, 173, 13.6.1 Cases with Zero Long-Run Equilibrium, 177, 13.6.2 Cases with Positive Long-Run Equilibrium, 180, 13.6.3 Cases with Negative Long-Run Equilibrium, 182, 14.5.2 Drawdown and Time under Water, 201, 14.5.3 Runs Statistics for Performance Evaluation, 201, 14.7.2 The Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio, 203, 15.4 The Probability of Strategy Failure, 216, 16.2 The Problem with Convex Portfolio Optimization, 221, 16.4 From Geometric to Hierarchical Relationships, 223, 16.6 Out-of-Sample Monte Carlo Simulations, 234, 16.A.3 Reproducing the Numerical Example, 240, 16.A.4 Reproducing the Monte Carlo Experiment, 242 Exercises, 244, 17.2 Types of Structural Break Tests, 249, 17.3.1 Brown-Durbin-Evans CUSUM Test on Recursive Residuals, 250, 17.3.2 Chu-Stinchcombe-White CUSUM Test on Levels, 251, 17.4.2 Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller, 252, 17.4.3 Sub- and Super-Martingale Tests, 259, 18.3 The Plug-in (or Maximum Likelihood) Estimator, 264, 18.7 Entropy and the Generalized Mean, 271, 18.8 A Few Financial Applications of Entropy, 275, 19.3 First Generation: Price Sequences, 282, 19.3.3 High-Low Volatility Estimator, 283, 19.4 Second Generation: Strategic Trade Models, 286, 19.5 Third Generation: Sequential Trade Models, 290, 19.5.1 Probability of Information-based Trading, 290, 19.5.2 Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading, 292, 19.6 Additional Features from Microstructural Datasets, 293, 19.6.2 Cancellation Rates, Limit Orders, Market Orders, 293, 19.6.3 Time-Weighted Average Price Execution Algorithms, 294, 19.6.5 Serial Correlation of Signed Order Flow, 295, 19.7 What Is Microstructural Information?, 295, PART 5 HIGH-PERFORMANCE COMPUTING RECIPES 301, 20.3 Single-Thread vs. Multithreading vs. Multiprocessing, 304, 21.5 An Integer Optimization Approach, 321, 22 High-Performance Computational Intelligence and Forecasting Technologies 329Kesheng Wu and Horst D. Simon, 22.2 Regulatory Response to the Flash Crash of 2010, 329, 22.6.3 Intraday Peak Electricity Usage, 340, 22.6.5 Volume-synchronized Probability of Informed Trading Calibration, 346, 22.6.6 Revealing High Frequency Events with Non-uniform Fast Fourier Transform, 347, 22.7 Summary and Call for Participation, 349. Written by a recognized expert and portfolio manager, this book will equip investment professionals with the groundbreaking tools needed to succeed in modern finance. You signed in with another tab or window. DR. MARCOS LÓPEZ DE PRADO is a principal at AQR Capital Management, and its head of machine learning. SSRN ranks him as one of the most-read authors in economics, and he has published dozens of scientific articles on machine learning and supercomputing in the leading academic journals. February 2018 Machine learning (ML) is changing virtually every aspect of our lives. 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